目的建立层次分析-态势分析模型，对影响我国护理专科门诊发展的因素进行定性及定量分析，探寻我国护理专科门诊的发展策略。方法 基于文献分析，归纳影响护理专科门诊发展的关键因素，建立分析模型。采用德尔菲法，邀请临床护理专家对各因素进行两两比较，构建判断矩阵计算权重向量及一致性检验。计算态势分析强度普坐标系，确定策略方向。结果 成本效益劣势（W3，综合权重0.220）与权限制约（T1）、能力认证威胁（T2）构成专科护理门诊发展核心矛盾集群（综合权重0.210）；策略四边形显示，护理专科门诊面临需求升级机遇（O2）与成本效益劣势（W3）共同主导（策略重心Y=0.07）；内部优势（S）整体权重偏低（总权重0.010），但其细分维度中，医疗分流优势（S1，权重0.460）显示局部价值。结论 护理专科门诊应聚焦成本控制与需求升级，推动亚专科发展与资源整合；同时，依托技术赋能，激活存量优势，构建可持续发展路径。

Objective To establish an Analytic Hierarchy Process-Strength Weakness Opportunity Threat (AHP-SWOT) model for conducting qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors influencing the development of nursing specialty clinics in China,aiming to explore corresponding development strategies.Methods Based on literature analysis,key factors affecting the development of such clinics were summarized to construct the analysis model.Using the Delphi method,clinical nursing experts were invited to perform pairwise comparisons of these factors.Judgment matrices were built to calculate weight vectors and conduct consistency checks.A strategy vector coordinate system was computed based on SWOT intensity to determine strategic directions.Results The disadvantage of cost-effectiveness (W3,comprehensive weight 0.220) formed a core cluster of contradictions for the development of nursing specialty clinics,alongside constraints from authority limitations (T1) and threats from competency certification (T2) (combined comprehensive weight 0.210).The strategic quadrilateral indicated that nursing specialty clinics face a situation dominated by the opportunity of demand escalation (O2) and the disadvantage of cost-effectiveness (W3) (strategic center Y=0.07).The overall weight of internal strengths (S) was relatively low (total weight 0.010).However,among its sub-dimensions,the advantage of medical diversion (S1,weight 0.460) demonstrated localized value.Conclusions Nursing specialty clinics should focus on cost control and leveraging the opportunity of demand escalation,promoting the development of sub-specialties and resource integration.Concurrently,they should rely on technology empowerment to activate existing strengths and construct a sustainable development pathway.

R47-05；R823

海南省自然科学基金青年基金项目（823QN255）