目的 系统评价中国产妇阴道试产失败中转剖宫产风险预测模型，为临床护理人员选择合适风险评估工具提供参考。方法 检索知网、维普、万方、CBM、PubMed、Cochrane Library、Embase、Web of Science、CINAHL数据库中发表我国产妇阴道试产失败中转剖宫产风险预测模型研究，检索时限为建库至2024年5月。由2名研究者独立筛选文献与资料提取，基于偏倚风险评价工具评价纳入研究的偏倚风险及适用性。结果 纳入20篇文献，共24个预测模型，其中曲线下面积＞0.7的模型占95.83%。13篇文献进行了内部验证，5篇文献进行了外部验证。20项研究偏倚风险均为高偏倚风险，其中10项适用性良好。年龄、体质量指数、身高、引产、Bishop评分和羊水污染是模型中常纳入的预测因子。结论 我国产妇阴道试产失败中转剖宫产风险预测模型的研究仍处在发展阶段，建议优化现有模型时纳入动态产程指标（如宫缩强度），并通过多中心大样本前瞻性研究加强外部验证。

Objective To systematically evaluate risk prediction models for Cesarean section after failed trial of vaginal delivery in Chinese women and provide reference for clinical nurses in selecting appropriate risk assessment tools.Methods CNKI,VIP,Wanfang,CBM,PubMed,Cochrane Library,Embase,Web of Science,and CINAHL databases were searched for studies on the topic from inception to May 2024.2 researchers independently screened literature and extracted data.The risk of bias and applicability were assessed using the Prediction model Risk of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST).Results 20 articles comprising 24 prediction models were included,with 95.83% showing area under the curve ＞0.7.13 studies conducted internal validation,while 5 performed external validation.All studies had high risk of bias,with 10 demonstrating good applicability.Common predictors included maternal age,BMI,height,labor induction,Bishop score,and amniotic fluid contamination.Conclusions Current risk prediction models for Cesarean section after failed trial of vaginal delivery in China remain developmental.Future optimization should incorporate dynamic labor indicators (e.g.,uterine contraction intensity) and strengthen external validation through multicentered,large-sample prospective studies.

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贵州省卫生健康委科技项目（gzwkj2025-603）；贵州省科技计划项目（黔科合支撑[2021]一般035）；贵州省护理学会一般项目（GZHLKY202405）；贵州护理职业技术学院院级重点科研项目（gzhlyj2023-02）