目的 应用自回归移动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型建立骨科Ⅰ类切口感染预测模型，预测未来6个月的感染发病率。 方法 回顾性分析2013年1月至2021年12月上海交通大学医学院附属第六人民医院骨科Ⅰ类切口感染发病率数据。选取2013年1月至2021年6月的数据作为训练集，建立ARIMA模型；以2021年7-12月的发病率数据作为验证集，评价模型的预测效果，并预测未来6个月的发病率。 结果 2013年1月至2021年12月骨科Ⅰ类切口手术患者共有228 647例，发生Ⅰ类切口感染628例，手术切口感染发病率为0.275%。ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)₁₂为确定的最佳模型，2021年7-12月的实际值均落在预测值的95%可信区间范围内。采用该模型预测未来6个月的感染发病率依次分别为0.276%、0.283%、0.288%、0.285%、0.297%和0.291%。 结论 ARIMA模型能有效拟合、预测骨科Ⅰ类切口感染发病率，模型预测结果提示未来6个月内的发病率呈现低水平流行的态势，可为临床干预措施的实施提供科学依据。

Objective To establish a model for the prediction of orthopedics type I incision infection using autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model,and to predict the infection incidence in the following 6 months. Methods A retrospective analysis of the incidence of type I incision infection from Jan 2013 to Dec 2021 was conducted in the Department of Orthopedics of Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine.The data from Jan 2013 to Jun 2021 were used as the training set to conduct an ARIMA model,and the data from Jul to Dec 2021 were used as the prediction set to evaluate the predictive result of the model.The ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence in the following six months. Results From Jan 2013 to Dec 2021,228647 patients underwent orthopedics type I incision surgery,and 628 of them had type I incision infection,so the infection incidence was 0.275%.ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)₁₂ was confirmed to be the best model.The actual values from Jul to Dec 2021 were within the 95% confidence interval of the predictive values.The infection incidence in the following six months predicted using the ARIMA model was 0.276%,0.283%,0.288%,0.285%,0.297%,and 0.291%,respectively. Conclusions The ARIMA model can fit and predict the incidence of orthopedics type I incision infection.The predictive result of the ARIMA model indicates a low-level prevalence in the following six months.It can provide a scientific basis for the implementation of clinical intervention measures.

R473.6

上海交通大学医学院院感科研项目（Jyyg2215）；上海市第六人民医院院级管理类科研基金（lygl202205）