目的 基于决策树法构建老年轻度认知障碍患者并发吞咽功能障碍的风险预测模型，以期为临床防治工作提供参考。 方法 回顾性分析2019年10月至2022年3月在某院治疗的老年轻度认知障碍患者150例的临床资料，按是否发生吞咽功能障碍，将其分为吞咽障碍组和非吞咽障碍组，分析其危险因素，建立决策树模型，并分析预测效能。 结果 150例老年轻度认知障碍患者中，吞咽功能障碍发生率为28.0%。两组患者在年龄、Fried衰弱评估量表（Fried Frailty Phenotype，FRIED）、Barthel指数（Barthel index,BI）等项目上的差异均有统计学意义（均P＜0.05）。Logistic回归分析结果显示，年龄、FRIED评分、BI、吞咽训练、牙齿缺损、用药种类数均为老年轻度认知障碍患者合并吞咽功能障碍的危险因素（P＜0.05）。BI评分是老年轻度认知障碍患者合并吞咽功能障碍最为重要的影响因素。决策树模型预测老年轻度认知障碍患者合并吞咽功能障碍的受试者操作特征曲线下面积（area under the curve,AUC）值稍高于Logistic回归模型。 结论 构建的决策树预测模型对老年轻度认知障碍患者合并吞咽功能障碍具有较好的风险预测价值。

Objective To construct a risk prediction model for elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment complicated with swallowing dysfunction based on decision tree method，and to provide a reference for clinical prevention and treatment. Methods The clinical data of 150 elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment treated in a hospital from October 2019 to March 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.According to the occurrence of swallowing dysfunction，they were divided into dysphagia group and non-dysphagia group.The risking factors were analyzed，a decision tree model was established，and the prediction efficacy was analyzed. Results Among 150 elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment，the incidence of swallowing dysfunction was 28.0%.There were significant differences in age，Fried Frailty Phenotype（FRIED ），Barthel index（BI） and other items between the two groups (all P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that age，FRIED score，BI score， swallowing training，tooth defect，and the number of medication types were risk factors for swallowing dysfunction in elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment (P＜0.05).BI score is the most important influencing factor for swallowing dysfunction in elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment.The AUC value of decision tree model in predicting swallowing dysfunction in elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment was slightly higher than that of Logistic regression model. Conclusions The established decision tree prediction model has a good risk prediction value for elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment complicated with swallowing dysfunction.

R473.74